As the name of this publication suggests - I really am an amateur investor. I can generally read a 10-K (I am a CPA, after all) and generally understand finance, but when getting super deep in the weeds on some of the stuff I see on Twitter (fund flows, intricacies of modern monetary finance, anything @profplum99 tweets) I am pretty lost. However, my belief is that internet (and Twitter specifically) is the great democratizer of ideas. Take, for example, this recent exchange relating to Natural Gas. Now, I know next to nothing of Nat Gas - but I can reasonably review this and make an educated guess that the bulls seem right. Certainly there are some differences of opinion around $SD, but the broad thesis appears solid.
Rarely in this world will one have a truly unique idea - instead the key appears to be identifying those who already have the good ideas and jumping aboard before it is too late.
Thus far in 2020, as I've started to take a more active role in a sizable piece of my investments, I haven't really had a plan outside of finding enjoyment in scrolling through Twitter and trying to make some money. Given that the amount of capital I am playing with isn't exactly chump change, I think it likely prudent to start putting some guiderails around a plan. Naturally this will evolve over time, but a framework to start seems to make sense.
Turn 200k into 1.5 million. By my count I need 3 doubles. 200 -> 400. 400 -> 800. 800 -> 1,600. Easy, right? I have $190,500 invested thus far and will be freeing up the other $9,500 in the next couple months to get to $200K. I read somewhere (I am paraphrasing here) that while the key to maintaining wealth is diversification - the key to obtaining wealth is concentration. I’m not sure I’m one to have the conviction to put every single egg in one basket, so my plan is to invest in themes. Broadly, as of this writing, those themes are:
Biotech -20% - $BMYRT | $UROV | $XERS | $HGEN
Tankers -20% - $DHT | $FRO | $STNG | $EURN | $TNK
Nat gas -10% - $AR | $SD
Copper - 10% - $OCO
Weed - 10% - $AYR
Stable - 10% - $NNI | $NTDOY
Land - 10% - $JOE
Crypto- 10% - $GBTC | ETH
In conjunction with the above will be rolling all accounts in one main TD Ameritrade account. I am annoyed I can’t buy foreign exchanges but that’s perhaps a 2021 problem. Thus far in 2020 I'm pretty close to 'even' from a tax standpoint (including rolling over some losses from the last couple years), but might have to start paying closer attention to tax implications given this is all taxable money.
I’ll be documenting my trades here so we can all commiserate one way or the other. One thing that’s missing, in my mind, from #FinTwit is actual documentation of trades and position sizing. Sure you believe in a stock - but are you in it 1%? 5%? More? Hopefully following along this journey might encourage others to be a bit more transparent in their trades/positioning as well.
Trade $DGS, $EFV, and $FNDC for $JOE, $AR, $SD, &NNI. Watch already sold covered calls to see if some of my tankers get called away.
$226,273 balance. 15% to goal.