One Double (almost) Down, Two to Go

Approaching $400K on the way to $1.6M

One thing about being an amateur investor is life can come at you fast. The holidays, busy work schedule, and winter malaise can make time to dedicate to managing the portfolio (and writing about it) hard to come by. For my many loyal readers I apologize for the lack of timely updates. I’ll try to be slightly more consistent going forward (though god knows what I’ll actually write about). I’m generally more active on Twitter because it’s easier than writing up a whole post. As outlined in my second post, the goal here is to convert my $200K investment into $1.6M.

A lot has happened since my last post - up to and including the market seemingly going insane (more on that later). Looking back, 2020 turned out to be a banner year. Returns were 45.57% overall with most coming toward the back half of the year when some fairly concentrated bets paid off. Unfortunately, $BMYRT was a let down - could have taken the year from good to great, but can’t win them all. I will say I am excited to maybe get a random 5 digit check in the mail someday if there is a settlement. Nothing better than unexpected money. Note in the table below my account wasn't fully funded until the end of 2020 so there are contributions being made that aren’t itemized below - this is handled via the XIRR calc.

2021 has picked up where 2020 left off in a big way. January was a plus 9.51% month and February thus far is plus 22.83%. 34.51% on the year. Clearly unsustainable, but enjoying the ride now while it lasts.


Notable sells:

$Tankers.

Man, that trade turned out to be pretty bad. Interestingly, rates are still garbage but tankers are rallying. Either the market is indeed quite forward looking and is pricing in the inevitable recovery in rates or they are caught up in some oil algos. Regardless, not dipping my toe back in here until rates get some legs again. I still think I could have held and eventually made some money, but other opportunities seemed better at this point.

$PBF

This was a position I was in thanks to some DD posted on twitter by Calvin quite awhile ago. In what turned into a bit of a depressing theme for me I sold some covered calls that ended up with my shares being called away. It was a 2x so not complaining, but I think unless IV is incredibly elevated and I’m looking to exit anyways I’m done with covered calls for a bit. As I noted on twitter feels a bit like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

$SLYV and $RPV

These were both hold outs from my ‘I’m solely a passive investor days’ that I sold to allocate elsewhere.

$Mack

More on this later, but I sold my 1,000 shares after about a double (sold at $6.75 and $7.25).

$DS

Driveshack has bounced a round a ton. They recently raised which should allow them the capital they need to get proof of concept on the puttery idea. As I have written before, I’m not a huge believer in that idea until I see the proof it works, so trimmed this position and assuming it’s over $2.50 on 2/19 will be out completely (yay, covered calls).

Others

I didn’t really sell any other high allocation positions. I did sell some stuff that was just chilling in the portfolio at a super low allocation because it wasn’t worth the brain damage of following along.


Notable Buys:

$SOI

Oil is making quite the comeback. I don’t feign knowing too much about Solaris, but my brother is a big fan so that’s got to be worth something. This article does a good job summarizing the company / opportunity. Not a huge position, but slides into my “unloved energy” basket.

$VYGVF

Crypto has been good to me and I was looking for alternative ways to capitalize on the broader “movement” when I stumbled upon this thread on twitter.

$PLBY

Playboy, the brand, just seems like it should be worth more than where it’s trading. It’s a somewhat small position so I’d like to add when I have the opportunity. Kuppy is in it and has been a nice guide to me so far so trailing again here.

More Weed, Please.

$AYRWF is my biggest weed bet by far and I remain super bullish on them. Sandelman, don't let me down. A lot of why I am bullish on $AYRWF, however, is due to the greater cannabis setup in the US. Search #MSOGang on Twitter for precisely why, but I am a believer we are sitting at a nice inflection point for these stocks.

In order to add some additional exposure and diversify a tiny bit, I've added $GRAMF, $GRMWF, $CXXIF, and $LHSIF.

$GRAMF, aka the parent company, despacced recently and aim to take on the California cannabis market. Big names attached to the company include Jay Z, Rihanna, Joe Montana and more. I recently listened to an interview with their CEO and came away impressed. It sounds like some M&A activity is to be expected in Q2 once they are able to from a regulatory standpoint. The warrant pricing is also interesting. Warrants are convertible at 11.50 and are trading at $3+ versus $11ish for the common. So clearly there is a belief there will be some appreciation in the future. I’m more in the common versus the warrants.

$CXXIF. This one has gotten a bit more expensive recently, but I believe is an attractive bet. CEO seems to have things moving in the right direction. The #toddfather himself is on the board which has to be a good sign.

$MACK

Astute readers will note $MACK also shows up in the sell section. Indeed, I sold out when it seemed like it had run farther than I thought it would and I sold thinking I’d be able to get back in later at an earlier price. That never really happened, but I still believe it’s a good position to build.

$UWMC

Got this one from Andrew at Yet Another Value Blog. Pretty awful price action but holding. Have some puts sold for 2/19 that might end up getting assigned.

$PLGNF

This is a big yolo play on a tip from a message board. Seems like a good industry to be in though and I’m trying to be early for once. Will likely try to add to this position a bit and then wait for some more positive news before doing anything else (revenue, I suppose, would be nice). Doesn’t seem like really *anyone* is paying much attention so hopefully I can sneak in to a good business.

$MBI

I have been following this one for awhile. They recently settled an old legal case with Credit Suisse for like 2x their market cap and the market basically yawned. Hopeful for a takeover sometime in ‘21.

$SVCTF

Full disclosure: as with many things I don’t totally understand how this works. But, these folks made like $700 million on their Gamestop trade and the market cap is still only like $600 million. They probably have something like $3 billion in assets under management at this point. Tongue-in-cheek, but not sure why they don’t just liquidate and give everyone a nice 3x or so. They also own, $AYR, so gotta love them.


Random trades

I'm trying to do less of this, but I'm a bit "impatient" and also prone to FOMO so I ended up making a few trades that don't show on either my previous position listing or my current one.

GME: I couldn't help myself. I was watching with fascination until Chamath tweeted he was buying calls. This seemed like a good enough catalyst so I dipped my toes in super light with 10 shares at $82. Sold at $130 because I didn't want to wake up with it at $20.

SNDL: I want to do more research on this, but I follow silky on twitter, and his track record seems good. How much of that is "he is good at picking stocks" versus "he has a huge following and anything he writes about is almost assured to go up" is unclear. If I can figure out how I'd love to do some research on "the first time a ticker gets tweeted about and performance over the next month, quarter, year". Not necessarily just him, but other accounts on Twitter with big followers as well. Anyways, bought at $1.00 and sold at $1.10 prior to the junk week trade taking off which is a little sad, but whatever. Company itself is assuredly not worth this much, so it really was just gambling.

Silver: I bought into $AG and $SLV on the idea of another "squeeze". Was up a decent amount for a bit, before giving it all back and more. Got sick of looking at them so just sold them to move on. I don't hate the idea of trying to catch random momentum rides like this, but do want to be quick to cut bait if its not a stock I really believe in. Better to take the L and move on to something else versus just waiting for it to catch up. Lost $600 on $AG and $750 on $SLV. Oops.

Position Sizing

It’s a bit of a mental thing at this point I think but I’ve gone from $200K to $400K and need my sizing to reflect that. That is, I still think of like $5k as a decent starter position. These days that’s like 1% which isn’t worth the time spent agonizing on it. I’m trying to develop 5% minimums with the only exception being when a ‘basket’ makes up that 5%. I know some folks like to buy a small position to “keep it on the screen” but that doesn’t work terribly well for me.

Selling Puts

I am really enjoying selling puts either on names I wouldn’t mind owning or on names where the IV is so bonkers it’s “almost” free money. Sold a bunch on $GME, $AMC, and the biggest position right now is $PSTH - both May and December. I’m a bit larger than I want to be in the Decembers so if I get a chance to make some profit and trim a bit I likely will. Also have sold some March puts on $MACK. Wouldn’t mind owning more in the low $6’s nor would I mind the 10%ish yield if I don’t get assigned. Generally only selling puts with the margin on my TD account to scrape some yield that otherwise I wouldn’t be able to.

Current Status

$396,635, Balance. 25% to Goal.